Bayes theorem, finding the bag the ball was chosen from, Bag 1 or Bag 2.


P(Blue|Bag 1) = 0.7

P(Blue|Bag 2) = 0.3

I choose balls without replacement from a bag until I have 12 balls, 8 of which are blue.

Therefore,The following is my working

P(Blue|Bag x) = 0.66

But P(Bag x|Blue ) cancels out to 0.66 using Baye’s Theorem. I’m sure thats wrong right?