# ELI5: Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem

Conditional Probability: The definition for this would be likelihood of an event occurring, assuming a different one has already happened. How can i apply this concept into this specific question: What is the probability of getting a spade on the 2nd draw and getting not a spade on the 1st draw? There isn’t any application of P(A⋂B) in here, why?

Bayesian Theorem: I’ve watched plenty of videos that i have memorized the formula without the grasp of the core concept. I’ve also realized that this is just an inverse of conditional probability but it’s still a little shaky for me whether this is correct, e.g. Conditional Probability – Find the probability of A given B | Bayes Theorem – Find the probability of B given A

Can anyone explain these concepts by providing these infos? 3Blue1Brown provided an explanation for these questions and yet i couldn’t understand it, maybe a little help from stackexchange could solve the problem.

· HOW CAN A 5 YEAR OLD UNDERSTAND IT?

· WHAT IS IT SAYING?

· WHY IS IT TRUE?

· WHEN IS IT USEFUL?

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